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Problem-Solving and Data Analysis / LESSON 10

Use counts to describe chance · PSAT/NMSQT Math

7 min + practice · Original foundation lesson

A probability compares favorable cases with the relevant sample space. Conditions restrict which outcomes belong in that denominator.

Choose a method

Build a small count table or name the allowed group. Add disjoint event counts; use the complement when a not-event is easier to count.

Avoid this trap

The denominator after conditioning is the conditioned group, not the entire survey. A probability and a predicted number of people use different units.

Check and transfer

Check that probabilities lie from zero to one. An expected count based on a sample proportion is a model estimate, not a guaranteed outcome.

Worked example with a numerical check

A survey has 16 responses, of which 4 report walking to school. What fraction of respondents report a different travel mode? Subtract the walking count from the total. Divide the remaining count by all responses. The requested value is 3/4.

Contrast and diagnose

Of 6 students in the chess club, 4 also play music. Given that a selected student is in the chess club, what is the probability the student plays music? The condition restricts the sample space to chess-club members. Use members who also play music as the favorable count. The requested value is 2/3. An incorrect approach: Omit one music-playing member from the favorable group.

Transfer practice

A bag contains 4 red, 6 blue and 2 green tokens. One token is selected at random. What is the probability it is red or green? Try first. Check: 1/2. Red and green are disjoint colors, so add their counts. Divide by the total number of tokens.

WORKED EXAMPLE

A survey has 16 responses, of which 4 report walking to school. What fraction of respondents report a different travel mode?

  1. Subtract the walking count from the total.
  2. Divide the remaining count by all responses.
  3. The requested value is 3/4.
Answer: 3/4
Compare the other answer choices
1/2

Assume two named categories are equally frequent.

1/3

Compare walkers with nonwalkers instead of using all responses.

3/5

Add the walking group to the total denominator again.

Try it, then explain it.

Complete a short set without looking at the example. After each answer, explain which operation preserved the relationship and why the result makes sense.

Practice this skill

Sources & authorship

Original Slope explanations and examples. References support the concepts; they are not the source of copied questions. Independent educator review is pending.

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